LAHAINA, Hawaii - With Maui around the corner, we at WEGL wanted to help you understand what all you might see. Eight teams enter, and one leaves on top. This is WEGL's guide to the Maui Invitational.
Memphis vs. UConn
Another strong mid-major against a college basketball powerhouse tips off on Monday with Memphis taking on No. 1 UConn in Maui. Both teams enter the tournament undefeated; however, it will be UConn’s first taste of good competition, as they have yet to play anyone in the top 300 in KenPom. Memphis, on the other hand, heads into Maui with three solid wins over Missouri, UNLV, and San Francisco, but the question will be if Penny Hardaway’s squad can keep up with the intensity and physicality of a top-five team.
UConn’s style of play presents a difficult mountain to climb if Memphis wants to keep the game close. The Huskies sit at sixth in KenPom, with a top-ten offense and defense. Dan Hurley’s signature hyper-efficiency also has UConn with one of the highest assist-to-turnover ratios in the country. Memphis, whose offense comes from their ability to create turnovers and get to the free-throw line, will hope to speed up the pace of the game and force UConn into mistakes.
Both teams are stellar defensively. Memphis sits at 24th in defensive rating with UConn sitting at sixth. UConn has arguably the strongest interior defense in the country, boasting the most blocks per game in the NCAA with 10.8. Memphis’ defensive strength comes from the length and athleticism of their starting five, forcing opponents into difficult, late-shot-clock situations and lurking in passing lanes.
Memphis is led by Tulsa transfer PJ Haggerty, who is playing as elite as anybody in the country- averaging 22.5 points on 49.1 percent from the floor. Haggerty is supported by high-level transfer guards Tyrese Hunter from Texas and Colby Rogers from Wichita State. The opposing three-headed monster from UConn consists of senior Alex Karaban, averaging 16.2 points on a ridiculous 63.6 field goal percentage. Two younger stars support UConn as the second and third option, with sophomore Solo Ball having a breakout season and former five-star freshman wing Liam McNeeley contributing 13.5 points per game.
On paper, Memphis seems to have the odds stacked against them in this matchup, but there is a path to victory. Penny Hardaway’s key to this game will be pushing the tempo and getting support from his bench. Memphis has typically only played three noteworthy players off their bench this season, however in their last win against San Francisco, Hardaway moved starter Dain Dainja to the bench, giving the Tigers an 18-point performance outside of the starting lineup. We may see a similar approach to this game, as UConn currently averages the most bench points per game. If Memphis can make UConn run in transition, and find a spark plug off the bench, the Tigers may be heading to the second round.
UConn’s key to the game is much simpler: keep mistakes to an absolute minimum. Although their metrics give UConn the look of an unstoppable force, they have had issues in their first few games with turnovers. If Dan Hurley can get his team to run the sets he wants, make the right pass, and stay communicating on defense, there is a chance this game gets ugly for Memphis.
Colorado vs. Michigan State
The Michigan State Spartans and the Colorado Buffaloes face off in another intriguing first-round matchup in the Maui Invitational. Both teams have enjoyed solid starts to the season, with the Buffaloes coming in at 4-0 and the Spartans only having the lone loss to the top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks. These two squads have been given polar opposite outlooks from the media, with Tom Izzo’s Spartans picked to finish fifth in a stacked Big Ten conference, while Colorado was tabbed to finish 15th in the Big 12.
Both squads boast high-flying offenses, with each side averaging north of 83 points per game. Michigan State runs an extremely efficient offense, ranking 24th nationally in assists per game and claiming a top-50 assist to turnover ratio. However, this could be disrupted by a very active Colorado defense. The Buffaloes average nine steals per game while scoring 17.25 fast-break points each time out, a mark good for 36th in the nation.
There have been flashes of potential, but also hints of vulnerability for these two teams as they head to the island. After dropping the game to Kansas, Michigan State picked up two unconvincing wins against mid-major opponents. In a game where they were 24.5-point favorites, they had to pull away late to beat a Bowling Green team they were tied with at halftime. In the contest following, the Spartans fought to an eight-point win over the Samford Bulldogs.
Similarly, Colorado has been gut-checked by Northern Colorado of the Big Sky conference. It took double overtime to separate the sides, as the Buffaloes escaped with a two-point victory. The Spartans will be by far the best side that Tad Boyle’s Colorado team has seen this year.
Individually, the Spartans are led by senior guard Jaden Atkins. Atkins averages 14.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. After an abysmal two-point showing against Kansas, he has heated up, scoring 38 points in Michigan State’s last two contests. They have also enjoyed consistent production from the freshman Jase Richardson. He has scored double-digit points in three of his five games thus far. A tweaked ankle that forced him to exit the Samford game will be something to monitor as the tournament progresses, as there is no definitive update on his status.
Colorado’s offensive production is very spread out, as Andrej Jakimovski, Elijah Malone, Javon Ruffin and Trevor Baskin all average above ten points per game. Ruffin is the lone man in that group who had been with the Buffaloes before this season. This year’s squad is very different from the one that fell to Marquette in the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year. Just over 12 percent of that team’s scoring production returned to Boulder for the 2024-2025 season.
This matchup should be very intriguing, as one of the greatest coaches in the game’s history in Izzo tries to figure out a team that looks almost entirely different from who they were a year ago. The Spartans and Buffaloes will be game number two in the Maui Invitational, with tipoff on Monday afternoon slated for 4 p.m. CT.
Auburn vs. Iowa State
Perhaps the biggest matchup of the first round is between the No. 4 Auburn Tigers (4-0) and the No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones (3-0). Auburn enters the game with one of the strongest résumés in college hoops, with a win over Houston and three blowout wins, boasting an average margin of victory of 28 points. Iowa State has yet to get a signature win, but they have started the season with three strong showings and look poised to continue building on their success under fourth-year head coach T. J. Otzelberger.
Under Otzelberger, the Cyclones have hung their hat on defense. This season, opponents are averaging just under 51 points per game, placing them at number one in the country in points against. Though yet to face a serious test, the Cyclones’ offense is no slouch either. Five Iowa State players average double-digit points, and they shoot 48.6 percent as a team.
The Tigers look similar statistically. The Bruce Pearl defense continues to be one of the toughest and hardest-working in the country. Their defensive stats are not as gaudy as Iowa State’s, but they have not needed them to be yet. The offense has come free and easy for the Tigers, their least productive outing coming with 74 points in their win over Houston. The Tigers shoot 55.3 percent from the field and a staggering 37.6 percent from three on pretty high volume.
Both teams feature experienced rosters, but Auburn’s 10 seniors give them the edge in that category. Among those seniors is All-American center Johni Broome. Coming off one of the best individual seasons in Auburn basketball history, Broome has continued to stuff the stat sheet. He is averaging 20 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks per game on this young season. His presence down low has been key on both ends in every game for the Tigers this season. Bruce Pearl’s supporting cast featuring Chaney Johnson, Denver Jones, and Tahaad Pettiford consists of a bench deep enough to play 11 or more players without significant drop off, and it is what makes the Tigers so dangerous.
While Iowa State does not have a Johni Broome, T. J. Otzelberger’s squad keys around the dynamic backcourt trio of Curtis Jones, Tamin Lipsey, and Keshon Gilbert. The trio combine for 41 points per game, with Gilbert contributing seven assists, and Lipsey averaging three steals. Jones shoots 42.1 percent from three and will be the man they look for when they need a bucket. Center Dishon Jackson has been a major contributor as well, adding a very efficient 18.7 minutes a night. In those minutes, he averages 9.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks. The Cyclones will look to him to contain the Tigers’ All-American.
Both teams have legitimate hopes of winning the Maui Invitational, but they each face a very tough test in the first round. For the Cyclones to win it all, they will need the offense to be consistent. The defense feels like a guarantee, but without excellent performances from Jones, Lipsey, and Gilbert, they may not have enough firepower to shoot down some of the big guns on the island. The key for the Tigers is similar, but the focus in my view is on the supporting cast. Role players like Chad Baker-Mazara, Dyland Cardwell, and Miles Kelly will need to be at their best in support of Broome for Auburn to make waves. It’s three games in three days, and it’s bound to be a blast.
Dayton vs. North Carolina
Dayton and No. 10 North Carolina will face off in the Maui Invitational on Monday. Dayton enters the tournament undefeated but has yet to face a ranked opponent. North Carolina enters with one loss so far this season — losing to Kansas earlier in the season by five. Both the Tar Heels and Flyers have high aspirations for the season. North Carolina entered as one of the favorites in the ACC and ditto for Dayton in the A-10. Monday’s matchup will provide a big test for both teams.
The matchup features strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness. Dayton’s strength is its ferocious defense. The Flyers defense has held opponents to just 67 points per game through five games played this season, but they have yet to see an offense as potent as North Carolina’s. The Tar Heels' strength is their offense. They average 95 points per game, good enough for third-best in the country.
Conversely, North Carolina’s defense allows just under 75 points per game, ranking 187th in the country. Dayton’s offense, however, has been far from a juggernaut—the Flyers average 77 points per game, ranking 131st in college basketball so far this year. Something will have to give on Monday night for either team to exit victorious.
As for key players to watch in this matchup, North Carolina boasts a lethal backcourt with RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau, and Seth Trimble each averaging over 15 points per game. Dayton will have its handful attempting to slow down the trio on offense. On the flip side, Dayton’s leading scorer, Enoch Cheeks is a player to pay attention to. Cheeks averages 15 points per game while shooting 37 percent from three-point range. Zed Key is another player to watch for the Flyers. Key is a 6’8 forward who averages 12 points per game, shooting 70 percent from the field.
Whichever team wins Monday night will keep its hopes alive of winning the Maui Invitational. What would the path look like? For North Carolina, it will take excellent play from its trio of talented guards. If Davis, Cadeau, and Trimble continue to play at a high-level North Carolina can win the tournament. A wild card player to watch is forward Ven-Allen Lubin. Lubin transferred from Vanderbilt and can be a force on the defensive end. He could be a key player in potential matchups against Iowa State, Auburn, or UConn.
As for Dayton, the Flyers will need to ride their defense in Maui. Many of Dayton’s potential opponents in the tournament post prolific offenses. If the Flyers hope to win the tournament, they will have to bank on their defense holding their opponents in check. Enoch Cheeks is averaging over three steals per game for Dayton. If the Flyers can turn their opponents over and create points off turnovers, they will have a chance to make a run.
Predictions
Horn: I am picking North Carolina to defeat Dayton and Iowa State to defeat Auburn, setting up a North Carolina vs. Iowa State matchup in the semifinals with North Carolina advancing to the championship game with a win over the Cyclones. On the other side of the bracket, I like UConn over Memphis and Michigan State over Colorado. I’ll take the Huskies once again in the semifinals against the Spartans, setting up a UConn vs. North Carolina championship game. I will take the Tar Heel to beat the Huskies and win the tournament.
Hawkins: I am taking UConn, Colorado, Auburn, and UNC winning their first-round matchups. Playing out like this, I believe Auburn would take down UNC and UConn would dominate Colorado, leading to an Auburn vs. UConn Maui title game. That matchup is truly 50/50, but I think Auburn’s frontcourt dominance, depth, and experience will lead them to hoist the Maui Invitational trophy.
Gesch: I think UConn handles Memphis, and Michigan State wins a close one on the top side of the bracket. I’ll take Auburn to beat Iowa State in a low-scoring affair, and I like North Carolina to beat Dayton. I like UConn over Michigan State in the second round, as well as the Tar Heels over the Tigers. I have the reigning national champions finishing the job in this tournament, with UConn beating North Carolina in the final.
Krome: In the first round, I like all the betting favorites: UConn, Michigan State, Auburn, and North Carolina. It's unfortunate that bottom of the bracket is so stacked, because a good team will likely get shafted. I think Iowa State takes fifth place. I like UConn over Michigan State, and I think Auburn beats North Carolina by a hair, setting up a top-five matchup in the final. I think the Tarheels take third place over Michigan State. For the championship matchup, its hard to pick against Johni Broome. Give me the Tigers escaping Maui with three more top-ten wins and a 7-0 record.
