AUBURN, Ala. - For the first time since mid-September, Auburn Football will enter a football Saturday coming off of a win. The Tigers will take on the Vanderbilt Commodores, a team that is synonymous with the basement of SEC football and a squad that Auburn demolished in 2023 in a 31-15 win in Nashville. However, this year’s Vandy squad is a bit different, and the Tigers will need to be careful if they want to avoid an upset.
The player that stands out immediately on this Vandy roster is quarterback Diego Pavia, a name that many Auburn fans probably remember from late last season. Pavia was the starting quarterback for New Mexico State last season when the Aggies stunned the Tigers in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Pavia isn’t the only person to make the transfer, either. 2023 NMSU head coach Jerry Kill is now on the Commodores’ staff as a chief consultant, and offensive coordinator Tim Beck and run game coordinator Ghaali Muhammad-Lankford have come to Nashville in the same roles. Joining Pavia and the coaches is tight end Eli Stowers, an elite threat in the passing game that has played like a top-three player at his position this season.
The transplants from Las Cruces have worked wonders for head coach Clark Lea and Vanderbilt this season, leading them to a win over then top-ranked Alabama in Nashville earlier in October. The Commodores were also mere plays from upsetting fifth-ranked Texas last week, and had Missouri on the ropes in Columbia in overtime early in the season when the Tigers were ranked seventh. As a result, this Vanderbilt team reached the 25th spot in the rankings this season prior to their loss to Texas, the first regular-season ranking for the Commodores since 2008.
So, in what will be the closest thing to a New Mexico State revenge game Auburn will get this season, what do the Tigers need to do to come out on top of the upstarts from Music City?
For the Auburn defense, it all starts with containing the Vandy run game. The Commodores run an option attack that has stressed defenses all season, including some that are more athletic than Auburn in Alabama and Texas. The Auburn defensive line and linebackers will need to remain disciplined and not fall for the option eye candy, similarly to playing the Georgia Tech teams of the 2010’s or a service academy.
However, don’t think the run-based attack means that Pavia takes a back seat in the Vandy offense. The Commodore quarterback leads the team in rushing yards on the season, and his 537 yards on the ground are 6th-best of any SEC player.
Pavia’s arm is a danger as well, and his primary downfield weapon is Eli Stowers. The tight end ranks 10th in the SEC in receiving yards by any player this season, and 6th nationally among tight ends. Stowers is a matchup problem for defenses, tending to be too athletic to be covered by linebackers but too big to be covered by traditional defensive backs. Auburn’s best matchup for Stowers is likely to be one of Jerrin Thompson or Kaleb Harris, as both safeties offer the best of both worlds for the Tigers.
On offense, Auburn should look to take advantage of a Vanderbilt pass defense that comes into the game ranked 77th in the country. The Commodores have struggled to defend deep speed all season, so look for either Malcolm Simmons or Cam Coleman to take the top off at some point during the game for the Tigers.
The bigger battle, though, will be in the trenches. Auburn comes into the week with the 40th-ranked rushing offense in the nation and a running back in Jarquez Hunter that is coming off the best game of his career, a 278 yard performance vs Kentucky. However, the Vandy run defense is no slouch, allowing a measly 114.8 yards per game on the ground, good enough for 28th in the nation. If the Tigers can run the ball effectively, it should put the rest of the Vanderbilt defense on its heels and open up the playbook for head coach Hugh Freeze and offensive coordinator Derrick Nix.
Finally, this game is huge for Auburn’s 2024 bowl hopes. A win would move the Tigers to 4-5 on the season, just two wins from bowl eligibility. With Sun Belt squad ULM left on the schedule, a bowl would begin to look at least possible for Auburn with a win on Saturday, even with #10 Texas A&M and #14 Alabama still left on the schedule. However, Auburn still has to get by Vandy first, and the Tigers will attempt to do so in Jordan-Hare Stadium at 11:45 AM in an early game to open the month of November.
